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Mounting concerns exist about the chance of armed conflict among Horn of Africa neighbors, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a heated verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in last year that his country's maritime access was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Ties between the two countries have often been tense. After a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

In 1998, a territorial conflict broke out in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Current Statements from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrea's maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and implied the intention to seize it militarily.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of losing access to the sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "through military action".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Statements

Despite persistent warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been limited to short statements on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea describing it as "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a strategy of reclaiming lost territory.

The information ministry warned on mid-September that attempts to justify "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Ground

There have been no reports of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in the country, national TV has displayed completion events of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The leader of personnel division of the defense force, the officer, commented lately in an interview that the army was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Historical Background of the Conflict

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the British administration before becoming a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler terminated this agreement and Eritrea became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict ensued, finishing with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then confirmed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Although this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors continued at in dispute.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders agreed to a statement that the hostilities was over – a move that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then partners in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

But diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated anew.